The Dollar Rally is the Key

Posted on August 13, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: It seems as though the rally in gold is short covering? If it is, and all bottoms start that way, why is this not the bottom?

Always read your work with great interest.

Yours truly,

JB

ANSWER: Major lows are always short-cover rallies, but they are much more dramatic. Here we had gold struggling to rally as it made a dead cat bounce when oil was making new lows. That showed the cycle was indeed higher, but gold was flat while oil was crashing. What moves sideways during an up cycle and what will not rally moves lower with more gusto when the cycle turns back down. In this case, gold held and finally began to exceed the reversals only when the other commodities in the sector completed their cycles. Gold had to wait.

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