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Tuesday
Mar072017

Gold: Driven by Central Bankers and Geo-Political Chaos

Background

This year gold’s fortunes will be influenced by the actions of the Central Bankers and the Geo-Political chaos which is simmering in various parts of the world. We are all aware that there are many factors that influence the precious metals sector; however, today we will only look at these two as I believe they are the dominant factors.

Central Bankers

Janet Yellen’s speech on Friday referred to possible rate hikes being implemented sooner rather than later as economic conditions would appear to have improved.

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Monday
Mar062017

Will banks' excess reserves fuel a new monetary crisis?

 

Don't look now but inflation and a new gold rush might be in our future

 

Editor's note: The charts in this edition of our newsletter, offered in conjunction with the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED), are live, interactive and updated automatically. To monitor changes, we invite your return visits.

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Monday
Mar062017

Trapped Longs In Miners As Gold Poised For Fed Fuelled Fall

The Fed will hike rates this month and signal further hikes to come. Gold prices have yet to fully digest this reality, and therefore there is a strong case for a major move lower in the yellow metal. A Le Pen victory in France could derail the Fed’s plans for a follow up hike in June, but in the short term the gold market is vulnerable to a sharp move lower. There are a number of trapped speculative longs in the futures and mining stocks and we are approaching a period of seasonal weakness. We target a move to $1050 initially, and see merits in a larger move to $720 should the Fed persist with further hikes.

March Hike A Done Deal

The Fed speakers last week unequivocally signalled a March hike. Yellen’s speech to cap the week off confirmed this, and we therefore expect the Fed to hike at next week’s FOMC meeting. Although we still have an employment print before then, the Fed can look through the weakness of one print given the strength of the rest of the data and their clear preference to raise rates.

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Thursday
Mar022017

Gerald Celente Just Released A Major New Trend Forecast For 2017

On a day where the Dow was up over 300 points, closing above 21,000, top trends forecaster Gerald Celente has just released a new trend forecast for 2017.

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Wednesday
Mar012017

Brexit 02 March 2017

Theresa May will be forced to order MPs to throw out an immediate guarantee that 3 million EU nationals can stay in Britain, after a humiliating defeat in the House of Lords.

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Tuesday
Feb282017

Fed’s Dudley says case for interest-rate hike has become ‘a lot more compelling’

The case for an interest-rate hike has become “a lot more compelling,” a crucial Federal Reserve official said in a statement that moved markets.

In an interview with CNN International, New York Fed President William Dudley on Tuesday said that “animal spirits have been unleashed a bit” in the wake of the presidential election, pointing to the rise in the stock market.

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Monday
Feb272017

James Turk – “The Shorts Are Choosing To Fight” Despite The Fact That “Silver Is The Cheapest Asset On The Planet”

Today James Turk told King World News that the shorts are choosing to fight despite the fact that silver is the cheapest asset on the planet.

“The Advance May Slow”
James Turk: 
 “
There was a flurry of short covering in silver last week, Eric, pretty much on time and as I expected. Gold, as well, saw some short covering,

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Wednesday
Feb222017

Gold: Short End US Rates Matter More Than Long End Real Yields

In the years following the GFC, short end yields in the US were contained for an extended period of time as the Fed committed to keeping rates on hold. Given the static nature of the short end, and the shift of monetary policy implications further out the curve through QE programs, long end US rates became the focus. When discussing the drivers of gold prices, long end US real rates (the yield on inflation protected bonds) was the critical factor. However over the past couple of years, the Fed has hiked rates twice, and we now have live meetings with an active short end. This has reduced the impact of long end real rates on gold, and instead shifted the focus to the short end. We now form our view on gold prices overwhelming based on short end rates, as opposed to long end yields. Our bearish view on gold prices is derived from a Fed hike in June.

The Historical Correlation

Looking back at the relationship between gold prices and US real rates there is a solid case. We wrote about it at length through 2010-2012

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Tuesday
Feb212017

Gold Sector Update – What Stance is Appropriate? 

The Technical Picture – a Comparison of Antecedents


We wanted to post an update to our late December post on the gold sector for some time now (see “Gold – Ready to Spring Another Surprise?” for the details). Perhaps it was a good thing that some time has passed, as the current juncture seems particularly interesting.

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Monday
Feb202017

Alan Greenspan: Ron Paul Was Right About The Gold Standard

 As John Rubino eloquently puts it, "when the history of these times is written, former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan will be one of the major villains, but also one of the greatest mysteries. This is so because he has, in effect, been three different people." Greenspan started his public life brilliantly, as a libertarian thinker who said some compelling and accurate things about gold and its role in the world.

 

 

An example from 1966:

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